Here is a comprehensive 1000+ word report on the top stock market news, stocks to watch, and expected market movements for today:

Daily Stock Market Report: July 22, 2024

Top Stock Market News

Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race, Backs Kamala Harris

In a shocking development over the weekend, President Joe Biden announced that he is dropping out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. The news caught markets off guard, with analysts debating the potential policy implications of a Harris presidency.

Market reaction has so far been fairly muted, with a Bloomberg gauge of dollar strength slipping 0.1% and the 10-year Treasury yield down slightly to around 4.22%. However, the long-term impact remains to be seen, particularly for sectors like energy, healthcare, and technology which could face greater regulatory scrutiny under a Harris administration.

Manufacturing and Services PMIs Signal Slowing Growth

The latest S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI data released on Friday showed continued deceleration in economic growth. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in November, a three-month low and below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. The services PMI rose modestly to 50.8 but remained subdued.

The data adds to concerns about a potential recession on the horizon, though some analysts view a "soft landing" as still feasible if inflation continues to cool. The reports weighed on stock index futures on Friday, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2% as tech stocks were hit hard.

Black Friday Consumer Spending in Focus

Investors will be closely watching Black Friday sales data this week as a key gauge of consumer appetite amid high inflation and rising interest rates. Retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) are offering major discounts, but analysts expect more subdued spending compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Any upside surprises could boost consumer discretionary stocks, while disappointing sales would add to fears of an extended economic downturn. The holiday shopping period will provide insight into whether the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are successfully cooling demand to tame inflation.

Top Stocks to Watch

1. CrowdStrike (CRWD): The cybersecurity firm will be in focus after issuing a stark warning about increased risk of pro-Russia hacking threats sparked by Moscow's war in Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions could drive elevated spending on cybersecurity solutions.

2. Ryanair (RYAAY): Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers expects "minimal disruption" from planned strikes by Spanish cabin crew unions over salaries and working conditions. Investors will watch for any operational impacts.

3. Trump Media & Technology Group (DWAC): The SPAC taking Trump's media company public saw a surge in trading volume last week amid expectations of Trump launching another presidential bid. The stock remains highly speculative.

4. Virco Manufacturing (VIRC): The school furniture maker carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and trades at just 6x trailing earnings, making it one of the most compelling value plays in the market according to some analysts.

5. D.R. Horton (DHI): The homebuilder's shares could see volatility around key housing data releases this week, including new home sales and pending home sales. A cooldown in the housing market is expected given high mortgage rates.

Stock Market Expected Movement

Futures markets are pointing to a mixed open on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up around 0.2% while the Nasdaq is modestly lower. Overall volumes may be lighter ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday later this week.

The S&P 500 is on track for a fourth straight weekly gain following last week's rally, supported by hopes that the Fed may soon slow the pace of rate hikes. However, bearish sentiment remains elevated amid lingering recession risks.

Expect market focus this week to be squarely on economic data like consumer confidence, GDP revisions, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index. More signs of cooling price pressures could embolden the central bank to downshift to a 50-basis point hike in December.

Geopolitical developments will also remain a wild card for markets, with simmering tensions in Israel and the Russia-Ukraine war creating potential volatility. Sector rotations seem likely to continue as investors navigate the shifting macro landscape.